America hates Iran and dislikes and fears China. So the country is pressuring these two countries in all possible ways. Everyone knows that history. But the United States has not been able to achieve the desired level of pressure. Under no pressure is Iran’s economy crippled, nor is the country’s Islamist rulers collapsing.
In such a situation, the world leader may have to do nothing but express in vain anger!
In the midst of the US tough stance against Iran, another piece of news shocked the Americans. According to the report, China and Iran are going to sign an investment agreement worth 40 trillion US dollars.
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo reacted sharply to the news. He threatened that if such an agreement was reached with Iran, the United States would impose sanctions on China.
“If the agreement is signed, we will definitely implement whatever means we have,” Pompeo said. All the sanctions that the Islamic Republic has imposed on Iran will be imposed on the Chinese Communist Party, its businesses and all government institutions. ”
If the US Secretary of State’s threat is implemented, Sino-US economic relations will come to an end. But what will it be? This is because one-fourth of China’s GDP income from finished products comes from exports to the United States.
Pompeo also warned that China’s “entry” into Iran would destabilize the Middle East. This instability will put Israel at risk. It will also put Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates at risk. Iran is the world’s biggest sponsor of terrorism. They have weapons in their hands. There is trade. Now, if they get a lot of money from the Chinese Communist Party, it will only complicate the situation in the region.
Keith Yeh Krauch and Brian H. Hook, two senior State Department officials, made critical remarks before the foreign minister on the proposed ৪ 400 billion China-Iran investment deal. However, their assessment was very cautious.
Two U.S. officials told the Wall Street Journal: “There is considerable skepticism about the size and potential of the investment. We have doubts about whether China has the capacity to invest হাজার 4 trillion in Iran’s infrastructure. Because, in the last 15 years, their investment in Iran is only two thousand seven hundred million US dollars. As such, the proposed agreement is largely a framework for cooperation between the two countries.
The New York Times reported in July that the proposed deal would cover the construction of Five-G mobile broadband infrastructure, access to China’s global positioning system and arms production.
It was not possible to know any more details in this regard. One thing is clear, however, that the agreement means that China will get what it wants.
But Sino-Iranian economic relations have been shaken since the Trump administration imposed sanctions on Iran’s oil exports. Last May, China claimed that it had stopped all imports from Iran in compliance with US sanctions.
In 2006, Iran shipped 15 percent of its oil exports to China. That has now come down to one percent.
Some complain that China is buying Iranian oil indirectly, though not directly. Sometimes they are buying Iranian oil labeled ‘Malaysian oil’, sometimes they are filling oil from Iranian oil tankers in the Mediterranean to Chinese tankers. In this way, China gets two percent of its total oil demand from Iran. This one opportunity is enough for China to maintain good relations with Iran, but it is not enough for Iran to overcome the economic crisis.
Now the question is, what does China want in the Middle East? In 2013 and 2016, an expert raised the question of the possibility of a “Chinese solution” to the Middle East problem. China has no Middle East policy, no global policy.
The US wants to stem the rise of China as a technological superpower. The proposed Sino-Iranian deal could be a stepping stone for China against the United States in the Gebal Games Board.
Policymakers who hope that US sanctions will eventually lead to regime change in Iran, a possible Sino-Iranian deal will reveal a fundamental strategic truth: no US pressure can cripple the Iranian economy if China does not want a regime change. Far from it.
China is Iran’s largest trading partner. China’s GDP is 30 times that of Iran; 15 trillion US dollars. As such, Iran’s economy can be compared to that of a small province in China.
A former adviser to President Trump said in a recent interview that there was talk in the U.S. Department of Defense that China was planning to establish its authority in various seas and Eurasian territories.
But in reality, although China is gradually building up its navy, they have not spent any money to demonstrate global power. The number of members of their special forces ranges from 7,000 to a maximum of 14,000, compared to 8,000 in the United States. For the past five centuries, China has been pursuing a policy of non-involvement in military conflicts outside its own territory, and many observers believe that there is no reason to change that.
The new warnings about China’s military presence in the Persian Gulf are in stark contrast to their earlier allegations about China. At the time, Western observers said, China was taking oil from the Gulf to Asia absolutely free of charge, taking advantage of Western military spending.
China has now shifted its focus from land to land to meet its energy needs. They have built pipelines, roads, and railways by land to bring oil and gas. These have added oil and gas producers outside the reach of US forces.
This shift was needed for China, but it is not enough. China’s interest is centered on political stability in the Middle East.
China imports about 15 percent of its energy needs, mainly from the Middle East. If the Middle East becomes unstable in the coming days, it will pose a risk to China’s energy supply. At the same time, China is gradually reducing its dependence on the sea for fuel imports, and electric vehicles are replacing their gas-powered vehicles. In this situation, their interest in the security of the Middle East will not be much in the future.
Then the chess pieces of geopolitics will be rearranged. China-Pakistan, China-Iran, China-Russia, China-Israel – many relations will change then. Today’s enemy may then be the absolute ally, today’s ally may move away.
In politics, world politics does not play much! Going on in the past, still going on, will continue in the future.